Super Bowl LV is just hours away and the Kansas City Chiefs and Tampa Bay Buccaneers are set to play on football’s biggest stage. Tom Brady will try to add to his NFL record book, while Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs will look to become the first team to win back-to-back Super Bowls since Brady did it with the Patriots in 2003 and 2004.
See below for odds, picks, analysis and more for the 2021 Super Bowl. Plus, click here to get an EDGE with Rotoworld Premium for betting trends, live odds and more.
Super Bowl 2021 odds, favorite, spread, line
The best NFL picks and predictions for Feb 04, 2021. Get our best pro football bets for today as well as news, scores, odds, consensus, and more!
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- NFL Super Bowl Odds And Betting Moneyline. Also known as a “straight bet” a Moneyline bet just chooses the winner of the game. When betting on the Moneyline, the odds are usually not exact.
According to PointsBet, the Kansas City Chiefs are this year’s favorite over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to win the coveted Lombardi Trophy. See more on the point spread, moneyline and points total below:
- How to bet on Super Bowl LV: Bet on Chiefs vs. Buccaneers with PointsBet
- Point spread: Chiefs -3 (-115), Buccaneers +3 (-105)
- Moneyline: Chiefs -171, Bucs +145
- Over/under total: 56 points
RELATED: Bucs-Chiefs Super Bowl ‘Worst Result’ For Book
Super Bowl 2021 prop bets
- Color of Gatorade poured on winning coach: Orange (+150), Red (+225), Yellow/Green (+400), Clear (+400)
- Any player to throw a football into the cannon porthole during a celebration: +5000
- Coin toss result: Heads (-103), Tails (-103)
- Coin toss winner: Kansas City Chiefs (-103), Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-103)
Source: PointsBet
Super Bowl LV expert picks, predictions
- Hayden Winks’ picks: The Super Bowl opening line started at Chiefs -3 with an over/under of 57.5 points, and I took the Chiefs and the under immediately after projecting a 30-24 final. The under is my favorite bet right now between the sides and total for a few reasons.
- Mike Florio’s pick via ProFootballTalk: Buccaneers 30, Chiefs 27 (Read analysis here, plus see more picks and predictions)
- Chris Simms’ pick: Chiefs to win over Buccaneers (Click here or watch the video above for Simms’ final score prediction)
RELATED:Get betting tools, DFS, season-long fantasy help and more here
Chiefs vs. Buccaneers Week 12 matchup (Rotoworld)
The Week 12 Final Score Is Misleading
- The final score could’ve been closer to 38-24 if the Chiefs hadn’t coughed up a red zone fumble and settled for two red zone field goals, if the Chiefs kept their foot on the gas in the second half instead of chewing clock, or if Mike Evans hadn’t scored two garbage-time touchdowns in the fourth quarter. This game was a textbook example of how the final score doesn’t tell the full story.
Read more: Click here for a closer look at the Week 12 matchup between the Chiefs and Buccaneers
Super Bowl LV player projections from Hayden Winks (Rotoworld)
Kansas City Chiefs projections
- Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs QB: Patrick Mahomes‘ projection looks crazy — nobody ever projects for 350 yards — but the Chiefs are very likely to throw 35-50 times against the Bucs. (Projection here)
- Chiefs Wide Receivers: WR Tyreek Hill went so nuclear against the Bucs in Week 12 (12-263-3) that I spent the 30 minutes it took to clip all of his touches from that game (video). The Bucs switched up their coverages then, but Hill kept getting open. I don’t think the Bucs have a single corner capable of hanging with Hill when they go to Cover 3 or Cover 1 man. (Projection here)
RELATED: Keys to success for the Kansas City Chiefs
Tampa Bay Buccaneers projections
- Tom Brady, Buccaneers QB:Tom Brady also projects well. The Bucs may run the ball early — Kansas City’s defense faced the 28th-highest neutral pass rate this season because the Chiefs are typically light in the box — but Tampa’s projected game script favors a pass-heavy game as three-point dogs. (Projection here)
- Buccaneers Wide Receivers: Before the NFC Championship, Antonio Brown was reportedly “day-to-day”. It’s unknown if he’ll play in the Super Bowl, but I left him for now. Even at full health, Brown is not an every-down player. He lines up wide only in three-receiver sets and could even be pushed by Scotty Miller, who scored a long touchdown last game. (Projection here)
Read more: Click here for more projections for Running Backs and Wide Receivers, plus charts, data and more
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Upcoming Games for February 7, 2021
| Time | Teams | Quarterbacks | Win | Best Line | Points | Total Points | Best O/U | More Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kansas City Chiefs(16-2) Tampa Bay Buccaneers(14-5) | Patrick Mahomes Tom Brady | 58.5% 41.5% | -150 +149 | 28.6 25.5 | 54.1 | o55-110 u56-110 |
Completed Games
| Time | Teams | Win | Best Line | Final Points | Sportsbook Log Loss | DRatings Log Loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buffalo Bills Kansas City Chiefs | 37.5% 62.5% | +140 -155 | 24 38 | -0.51073-0.52206 | -0.46968 | |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers Green Bay Packers | 43.8% 56.2% | +165 -170 | 31 26 | -0.98136-0.98152 | -0.82465 | |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers New Orleans Saints | 42.8% 57.2% | +130 -140 | 30 20 | -0.81706-0.85085 | -0.84868 | |
| Cleveland Browns Kansas City Chiefs | 23.0% 77.0% | +348 -410 | 17 22 | -0.25783-0.24502 | -0.26120 | |
| Baltimore Ravens Buffalo Bills | 47.8% 52.2% | +122 -135 | 3 17 | -0.57485-0.57893 | -0.65009 | |
| Los Angeles Rams Green Bay Packers | 38.7% 61.3% | +300 -350 | 18 32 | -0.27720-0.27871 | -0.48921 |
Season Prediction Results
| Games | Record (Pct) | No Pick | Log Loss | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sportsbooks | 0 | 0-0 (0.000) | 0 | |
| Sportsbooks | 0 | 0-0 (0.000) | 0 | |
| DRatings | 0 | 0-0 (0.000) | 0 |
Predictions Methodology
The NFL computer predictions that are listed below are based on a combination of factors. While home field advantage is a major factor, we do not account for specific weather in our projections. A full list of variables and non-variables that go into our equation may further be explained in our disclaimer.
Note that we are an information site, not a touting service and this information should be used for entertainment purposes only. You will find information on probabilities for each team to win, predicted score, total score and more.
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